The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
This may come as a surprise to many. Retail price inflation in petrol was the lowest at 10.21 per cent in March since November 2020. In diesel, it scraped the bottom of the barrel at 5.19 per cent in the last month of 2021-22 since February 2020. Even liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was at a nine-month low of 9.97 per cent in the month.
Inflation rate during August, the data for which is yet to be released, was likely to remain at about 7 per cent, said SBI Ecowrap.
Notwithstanding the inflation pinch, analysts believe the Indian retail sector is on the 'cusp of accelerated earnings growth' as consumer sentiment and discretionary purchases bounce back from the Covid-19 pandemic. "The shift in consumer preference from the unorganised sector to the organised, coupled with uptick in domestic demand as people resume work from office, will cheer the Indian retail sector," says Nishit Master, portfolio manager, Axis Securities. Shopping malls are witnessing increased footfall in lower tier towns and standalone stores as consumption picks up and mobility improves.
Inflation in fruits was 8.93 per cent.
A day after his appointment as the 26th governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), outgoing Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on Tuesday said one must understand the economic landscape and do what was best for the economy. "Let me first go, join, understand the turf ... Here it is a different role," Malhotra said, speaking to reporters in front of North Block.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the government is keeping an eye on inflation which is purely "extraneous" nowadays because of fuel and fertiliser prices. Replying to the debat on the Supplementary Demands for Grants in the Rajya Sabha, the minister said wholesale inflation has fallen to a 21-month low. Later, the Rajya Sabha returned the Supplementary Demands for Grants to the Lok Sabha, thus completing the process of authorising the government to spend an additional Rs 3.25 lakh crore in FY2022-23.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan on Friday said repo rate has been hiked as inflation pressures remain high.
SEBI's blockbuster reforms are rewriting the rules of mutual fund investing -- faster growth, sharper transparency, and smarter safeguards that put investors first, explains Ramalingam Kalirajan.
This is the lowest since 2012
Arguing that the recent elevation in retail inflation is not structural but supply-driven and therefore potentially transitory, a foreign brokerage report has forecast that the benign interest rate regime will continue at least until next June. The assessment comes a day ahead of the third bimonthly monetary policy review on Friday wherein it's widely expected that the monetary authority will leave the key rates unchanged at 4 per cent even though the consumer prices have been on remaining above 6 per cent since May and crude prices have been north of $70 a barrel for months.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The earlier high was in January this year at 5.07 per cent.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
Since March 2020, WPI food inflation rate continued to fall but the CPI-food inflation rose, signaling a breakdown in supply chain from the mandis to the final household.
Retail inflation during the first month of the current fiscal stood at 2.9 per cent, down from 4.6 per cent a year ago. Food inflation based on Consumer Food Price Index declined to a low of 0.1 per cent during the financial year 2018-19, the survey said.
As banks' chase for customers to collect cheap deposits is not fructifying, they are forced to offer inflation-beating real interest rates on fixed deposits now, and state-run banks led by Punjab & Sind Bank tops the chart offering 8-8.50 per cent per annum deposit rate. Banks are forced to offer inflation-beating deposit rates for a tenor ranging from 200 to 800 days as credit growth has been far outpacing deposit mobilization throughout this fiscal, leading to a funding crunch.
Wholesale price-based inflation spiked to a record high of 15.08 per cent in April on rising prices across segments from food to commodities. The WPI-based inflation was 14.55 per cent in March and 10.74 per cent in April last year. "The high rate of inflation in April 2022 was primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, food articles, non-food articles, food products and chemicals & chemical products etc. as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.
The finance ministry has cautioned that global and regional uncertainties and domestic disruptions may keep inflationary pressures elevated in the coming months, warranting "greater vigilance" by the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "Russia's decision to terminate the Black Sea grain deal, along with dry conditions in major wheat-growing areas, caused a price spike in cereals. Domestic factors like white fly disease and an uneven distribution of monsoon exerted pressure on vegetable prices in India," the ministry said in its latest Monthly Economic Report for July, released on Tuesday. However, the report maintained, the recent price surge in certain food items "is expected to be transitory". "Tomato prices are likely to decline with the arrival of fresh stocks by the end of August or early September.
N Chandrasekaran, chairman of Tata Consumer Products, has said in the company's annual report for FY25 that India remains one of the bright spots of economic growth amid a volatile global environment. He said India's long-term growth was underpinned by strong demographic and economic fundamentals as well as structural reforms.
India's wholesale price-based inflation is at a 30-year high, leading to a "very alarming" situation for the country, former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu said on Thursday. He, however, doesn't see any risk of hyperinflation, but cautioned that if retail inflation follows wholesale prices, it might lead to "inflationary crisis". Participating in a virtual event organised by the Asia Society, India, Basu said the inflationary situation in India is at a "very risky bend".
According to the Central Statistics Office data, the jump in the retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index was mainly due to rise in prices of kitchen items like vegetables, meat and fish.
Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan on Monday said the central bank will have to raise interest rates to tame inflation and the hikes need not be considered by politicians and bureaucrats as some "anti-national" activity. Known for his frank views, Rajan also said it was important to remember that the "war against inflation" is never over. "Inflation is up in India. At some point, the RBI will have to raise rates, like the rest of the world is doing," he said in a LinkedIn post.
The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rose in December at 0.73 per cent mainly due to a sharp rise in food prices. The WPI inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent.
Such a high level of WPI was last recorded in October 2012, when inflation was 7.4 per cent.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate during 2024 given the uncertainty over food inflation, State Bank of India (SBI) chairman C S Setty has said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in interest rates in more than four years is expected soon, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls.
Many high-profile IPOs in India since 2021 have destroyed investor wealth due to overvaluation, weak business models, and post-listing disinterest, turning 1 lakh investments into as little as 3,500.
The wholesale price-based inflation bucked the 4-month rising trend in December 2021, and eased to 13.56 per cent, mainly on account of softening in fuel, power and manufacturing items even though food prices hardened. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the ninth consecutive month beginning April. Inflation in November was 14.23 per cent, while in December 2020 it was 1.95 per cent.
Inflation in food articles was at 0.87 per cent in April 2018, as against a deflation of 0.29 per cent in the preceding month.
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
Fada estimates that global supply chain headwinds like scarce availability of rare earth elements for electric vehicle components and geopolitical tensions may affect urban consumer sentiment in June as well.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said inflation management cannot be "singularly" left to the monetary policy as a majority of activities are outside its purview in the current context. Speaking at a seminar organised by economic think-tank Icrier, the finance minister said that both the fiscal policy and the monetary policy have to work together to contain inflation. Consumer price index (CPI) based inflation or retail inflation is ruling above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent since January.
The wholesale price-based inflation surged to more than a decade high of 14.23 per cent in November, mainly due to hardening of prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum and natural gas. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for eight consecutive months beginning April. Inflation in October this year was at 12.54 per cent, while in November 2020 it was at 2.29 per cent. "The high rate of inflation in November 2021, is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, chemicals and chemical products, food products etc as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
In October, CPI inflation was 5 per cent.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
'Challenge is basically near-term growth as the outlook has turned a bit adverse.'
Pulses inflation remained stubborn at 35.56 per cent.
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